Let’s Talk Politics

New Caledonia will elect a new Congress tomorrow. The South Pacific island nation has been a territory of France since 1853. In the 1990s, nearly 3/4 of the population voted in favor of independence. The subject will most likely resurface again in 2013 when the Caledonian Congress will be eligible to issue a national referendum to decide the country’s future. Until then, the question of independence will continue to divide the Caledonian electorate.

This election, six parties are slated to run on a pro-independence platform. The will vie with three main anti-independence parties for the 54 seats at stake. Of the three parties opposed to independence, one, the Rally for Caledonia in France (RPCR), is politically affiliated with the Union for a Popular Movement (UMP), France’s center-right, ruling party. For this election, the RPCR will run as The Rally-UMP. Another anti-independence party, United Future (AE), split in October, 2008, leading to the formation of Caledonia Together (CE).

The members elected to the Congress are done so via proportional representation and serve five year terms. In the last election, 32 seats were awarded to the RPCR (16 seats) and the AE (16 seats).

Look for the results to be somewhat different from 2004. The UMP’s image has been tarnished in recent weeks over lack of confidence in the government and that should be a factor tomorrow. Also, expect increased vote transfers out of the AE in response to their split with the CE.

Angus-Reid Global Monitor